Friday, July 14, 2017

Juiced Balls Could be Cause of Homerun Spike

As of the All-Star break, the MLB is on pace to hit over 6,100 homeruns, which would shatter the previous record of 5,693 set in the year 2000.  That is significant for a couple of reasons.  First, 2000 was right in the middle of the so-called "steroid era" of baseball.  Barry Bonds was a year away from breaking the season homerun mark only 2 years earlier, and 4 years away from a season in which he slugged over .800.  The fact that an entire league that is presumably being drug tested more than ever before can still hit that many homeruns would leave one to believe there are other factors at play.  Secondly and perhaps most telling, MLB has been on a sharp upward trend in homeruns since around this time 3 years ago.  Since a lot of teams restock their balls at the break, there is speculation that there was something tweaked in the game ball around that time.

This certainly isn't the first time this has happened in baseball and it certainly isn't a secret either.  There was the famed "dead-ball era" up until the 1920s that was so dramatically different that statistics are often referenced in terms of during or after this time period.  College baseball has changed both their balls and their bats over the past decade.  The change to a metal composite "wood performing bat" reduced homerun totals by so much that it was compensated with a flatter seam ball.  My opinion is that MLB is more ignorant of the situation than trying to hide anything, so more than likely there are several factors at play.  Exit velocity is stat-du-jour these days and they are ever-increasing.  Batters are getting stronger and pitchers are throwing harder every year and that obviously leads to further hit balls - I mean, that's just science.  But if the data of the last 3 years has shown us anything it's that we are perhaps in another golden age of the homerun not seen in 20 years.  There have only been two 50 homerun seasons in the last 10 years and I personally am not opposed to seeing more of them.  It certainly helps the Brewers, who almost always seem to be in the top 5 in longballs.

Read this article on The Ringer for more of the data on the topic.

Brewers 50-41, +5.5 (3 v. Phillies, 4 @ Pirates, 3 @ Phillies)
Reds 39-49, -9.5, -11.5 WC (4 v. Nationals, 3 v. Diamondbacks, 3 v. Marlins)

Twins 45-43, -2.5, -1.0 WC (3 @ Astros, 3 v. Yankees, 3 v. Tigers)

Erik - 10 (+19 worked)

Peter - 25

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