(rendering of proposed Las Vegas Ballpark courtesy of Oakland A's and MLB.com)
As the sun begins to set on another season, many MLB teams remain in the weeds on where their future homes will be or what they will look like. Below is a list of teams that I've mentioned on this blog in some capacity over the last few years in terms of seeking a new ballpark, and the likelihood I've assigned to each of them either breaking ground on a new home, majorly renovating their current home, or moving somewhere else, before the expiration of Commissioner Manfred's current contract in January 2029. I feel like this date is significant and not arbitrary for purposes of this list, because Manfred has repeatedly stated that he wants to see major ballpark "situations" resolved before expansion is considered and before he retires, particularly the Rays and A's.
1. Tampa Bay Rays - 99%
See my post from last month. Even if the anticipated groundbreaking of January 2025 gets delayed a bit, I still see this ballpark (or some iteration of it) as a near certainty to break ground next year. And that's weird to say.
2. Oakland/Sacramento/Las Vegas/"Insert City Here" Athletics - 95%
Let's move to the white elephant in the room - the A's. If the question was about my confidence in their current ballpark plan, or even their move to Vegas in general, I'd have this under 50%. But I have them at 95% simply because it is a fact that they have just 9 remaining regular season games scheduled at the Coliseum, so they will need to find a home somewhere. They're currently slated to play in Sacramento from 2025-27 with an option for 2028, and I'm not entirely ruling out that the team will remain there long term in a new MLB-appropriate park. I even think crawling back to Oakland with their tail between their legs begging to revive their new stadium talks is a possibility. The government portion of the financing that was earmarked in June 2023 for the Vegas ballpark was contingent on the approval of a set of four agreements - community benefits, development, lease, and non-relocation, and so far only the first of those has been formally approved. The Las Vegas Stadium Authority seems confident that the remaining agreements will all be approved by the end of this year (Chairman Steve Hill has even cancelled some additional workshop meetings as a signal of progress), but the biggest question mark that has always been out there still remains - how are the Athletics paying for their share? Shockingly, there have not been any minority investors lining up for a chance to work with infamously shady owner John Fisher. The team recently announced they would be co-hosting a Tropicana Hotel Implosion Ceremony on October 8th - a quintessential A's smoke-and-mirrors move that does not guarantee a new ballpark will rise from that crater anytime soon.
3. Kansas City Royals - 75%
4. Arizona Diamondbacks - 50%
The D-Backs are in a similar situation to the Rays, in that their original 30-year lease from when the team began in 1998 is nearing its end. The situation is also very different, however, as the D-Backs had a sparkling new stadium on Day 1 of their franchise, and they have a great location in downtown Phoenix that would be hard to give up. The team has been pretty quiet on negotiations since the beginning of the year. There are the same veiled threats that all owners put out when they're looking for money, but I do think eventually the team decides on the renovation route and stays put. And after visiting this park in November for the World Series, I can tell you that the park sorely needs the upgrades. Many of the non-glamorous items like the sound system, lighting, HVAC, and roof apparatus are still original to the stadium - in fact, the Diamondbacks can no longer even safely open the roof while fans are inside. I see the team signing a lease extension and working out the money situation at some point, but it might be a series of short-term leases after 2027 until it gets resolved. As we've seen with the NHL Coyotes moving to Utah this season, and with all of the investment already occurring for Spring Training facilities, the Phoenix metro area has little appetite for building any more new stadiums.
5. Chicago White Sox - 25%
See my post from last month. The team and the city/state are very far apart on the dollars and nothing is urgent about this right now. The lawmakers are going to want to get the NFL Bears sorted out first before a team that's about to break the modern era record for most losses in a season, and has to compete with the beloved Cubs for attention no less.
6. Los Angeles Angels - 10%
The wild card of this situation is how long Arte Moreno will go on owning the team. I can talk about stadium leases all I want as I have with the other teams (theirs ends after 2029), but if Moreno keeps the team, the Angels are just going to go on playing at decrepit Angel Stadium in perpetuity. He's too cheap and closed-minded to do anything else, and already has one failed attempt at negotiating with Anaheim for a new ballpark 2 years ago, which ended so poorly that he did publicly consider selling the team for awhile. But don't worry, he netted a huge settlement sum from that corruption ordeal recently. However, he is 78 years old, so similar to Jerry Reinsdorf in Chicago, if he dies or sells the team, all bets are off. Surely any new ownership group would make vacating Angel Stadium a priority, but there's just too much money in LA to ever leave that market. They have a $3B television deal that doesn't expire until 2031, which is also not coincidentally around the time Mike Trout's huge contract ends, so I think that's the date to look at for some movement on this. The NHL Ducks across the street will also have a $4B development completed by that time that the Angels can stew about and wonder "what if," so the end of the decade will be very interesting in Anaheim.
touch with baseball when his childhood heroes Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, and Jim Gantner retired but the Great Home Run Chase of 1998 reignited his passion. As a student at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Erik became involved with the campus chapter of Habitat for Humanity. With this group Erik traveled to Portland, OR and Baltimore, MD to work on construction projects and help the group raise $25,000 to partially sponsor a house in Milwaukee. Also at UWM, Erik met Peter Nagel. The two attended their first Brewers game together during Opening Weekend 2003. Despite their failure to ignite the coals at their first tailgate, the two had a blast and were soon making weekly trips to the ballpark. Erik has gone on to several colleges and changed careers several times, and has moved all the way out to New Hampshire, but has always stayed true to his baseball roots by holding part-time stadium usher jobs. To this day he looks back fondly on his incredible cross-country journey.
No comments:
Post a Comment