Now is generally the time of year where I post something outlandish about how the Brewers season will go based on only a couple weeks worth of games, not unlike just about other member of the baseball media. There is always a year where a guy like Jason Kendall hits over .400 in the first month and you wonder if he could be an all-star or MVP, and there are years like this year where arguably our most promising hitter, Keston Hiura, is hitting barely over .100 and people are ready to write him off for dead. With that spirit of early-season excitement and hyperbole in mind, here are my immediate reactions to how the season is going to play out for the Brewers based on the first 10% of their schedule:
1. Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes will both be Top-10 in Cy Young voting.
This might not seem too radical or a stretch based on what these two have done not only this year, but going back all the way back to 2018 (save for a blip for Burnes in 2019 that we won't talk about). They've just continued to improve and now headline a rotation the likes of which I have not seen in my lifetime - a largely homegrown rotation, developed by the Brewers, that is leading the National League in most major pitching categories. Our last great rotation was 2011, but was comprised almost entirely of free agents and trades. Recently the Brewers ended a turn through the rotation where the five starters yielded only 1 earned run in over 28 innings pitched. At some point all five of these starters will hiccup, but the more interesting part to me will be if we are still hot in August, are players going to start being shut down or limited due to the shortened season last year?
2. Keston Hiura will return to form, but not this year. He will end up splitting time with Kolten Wong, Daniel Vogelbach, and others for the rest of the season.
Let me just start by saying I am a huge Keston Hiura fan and I wish him the best. When Ryan Braun quasi-retired, he was the guy whose jersey I bought to replace his. He's got some of the quickest hands I've seen and when he's right, he takes the ball the other way like a 10-year veteran. That being said, I think even the casual fan can see the gaping hole in his swing. Simple geometry and physics will tell you that swinging 45 degrees up at a ball that is coming in downward at 95 miles per hour, while also trying to time a leg kick that comes up to your chest is extremely difficult to get right. He is second only to Javier Baez for swing-and-miss rate at pitches in the strike zone dating back to the start of 2020. I think he will have no choice but to overhaul his swing and his timing mechanisms, and maybe sacrifice a little bit on the power and launch angle to help him become the complete hitter he was a couple of years ago as a rookie. But that is incredibly difficult to do during a season unless he is sent down to AAA. So I see this year being another "3 true outcomes" year for Hiura - walk, strikeout, or homerun - but he will be back with a vengeance in 2022. The Brewers are not a team that can afford to give up on a top prospect until they have exhausted all avenues. You need look no further than Lucas Erceg converting to a 2-way player to believe that.
3. Jackie Bradley, Jr. will have the most games played in the outfield this season.
Stop if you've heard this before: David Stearns signs a player that seems to make no sense or may not have a fit on the team at the time, and ends up being a key contributor. Stearns and Manager Craig Counsell have always had the philosophy of signing the best available players and worrying about position and playing time later. Jackie Bradley Jr. definitely fits into that category. While most Brewers fans reacted sharply to "why are we spending all that money on a 4th outfielder," I think most baseball pundits outside of the Brewers saw this as a steal. With Lorenzo Cain now 35 years old and coming back to baseball after 18 months off, and Christian Yelich's balking back, we are now seeing the value of having a gold-glove outfielder available to rotate in. He's seen the lion share of the playing time so far this year along with Avisail Garcia, and although he probably has the least productive bat on paper than any of our outfield options - including Tyrone Taylor who deserves a shot as well - his defense, speed, and reliability are going to keep him in the lineup consistently, especially in the late innings.
STANDINGS AND UPCOMING SERIES AS OF 4/19/21:
Brewers 8-7; 3 @ Padres, 3 @ Cubs
Twins 6-8; 3 @ Athletics, 3 v. Pirates
2021 GAMES ATTENDED:
Erik - 0
Peter - 0
touch with baseball when his childhood heroes Robin Yount, Paul Molitor, and Jim Gantner retired but the Great Home Run Chase of 1998 reignited his passion. As a student at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee, Erik became involved with the campus chapter of Habitat for Humanity. With this group Erik traveled to Portland, OR and Baltimore, MD to work on construction projects and help the group raise $25,000 to partially sponsor a house in Milwaukee. Also at UWM, Erik met Peter Nagel. The two attended their first Brewers game together during Opening Weekend 2003. Despite their failure to ignite the coals at their first tailgate, the two had a blast and were soon making weekly trips to the ballpark. Erik has gone on to several colleges and changed careers several times, and has moved all the way out to New Hampshire, but has always stayed true to his baseball roots by holding part-time stadium usher jobs. To this day he looks back fondly on his incredible cross-country journey.
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